<plotnine.themes.theme_minimal.theme_minimal at 0x154aa59a1be0>Panel Mixed Measles Report
2026-06-13 19:42:32.450612Python results
Tables
Summary
theta_idx shared logLik unit unit logLik R0 sigma \
0 0 -40439.876447 Bedwellty -1128.670636 26.290689 103.029999
1 0 -40439.876447 Birmingham -3243.380204 26.290689 103.029999
2 0 -40439.876447 Bradford -2584.482414 26.290689 103.029999
3 0 -40439.876447 Bristol -2681.532149 26.290689 103.029999
4 0 -40439.876447 Cardiff -2364.628622 26.290689 103.029999
gamma sigmaSE cohort amplitude iota rho psi \
0 60.151024 0.037279 0.285105 0.18987 0.134929 0.320105 0.992889
1 60.151024 0.037279 0.285105 0.18987 0.661300 0.585307 0.163784
2 60.151024 0.037279 0.285105 0.18987 0.635799 0.603761 0.198409
3 60.151024 0.037279 0.285105 0.18987 0.586822 0.632404 0.186976
4 60.151024 0.037279 0.285105 0.18987 0.400047 0.618347 0.276005
S_0 E_0 I_0 R_0
0 0.030469 0.000080 7.191181e-06 0.969443
1 0.040237 0.000125 1.516147e-04 0.959487
2 0.042163 0.000002 7.715392e-07 0.957834
3 0.036336 0.000004 2.411663e-06 0.963658
4 0.040346 0.000003 9.107824e-06 0.959642 unit logLik
unit
Bedwellty -1128.670636
Birmingham -3243.380204
Bradford -2584.482414
Bristol -2681.532149
Cardiff -2364.628622
Consett -1375.892505
Dalton.in.Furness -744.813582
Halesworth -319.964377
Hastings -1589.949727
Hull -2712.576985
Leeds -2925.270284
Lees -551.851836
Liverpool -3410.860707
London -3816.533713
Manchester -3283.108934
Mold -298.144070
Northwich -1205.896022
Nottingham -2702.051059
Oswestry -709.793336
Sheffield -2790.475288Top results for each method call
Basics:
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Number of units: 20
Number of parameters: 13
Number of observations (first unit): 730
Number of time steps (first unit): 5110
Number of parameter sets: 1
Results History:
----------------
[0] MIF Result:
Method: mif
Number of parameter sets: 36
Number of particles (J): 10000
Number of iterations (M): 100
Resampling threshold: 0
Number of monitors: 0
Block: True
Cooling fraction (a): 0.5
Execution time: 1795.419085741043 seconds
Top 5 Results:
theta_idx iteration shared logLik unit unit logLik iota rho psi S_0 E_0 I_0 R_0 R0 sigma gamma sigmaSE cohort amplitude
719 35 100 -40503.082031 Sheffield -2797.566162 0.735041 0.669331 0.133267 0.041404 5.047259e-05 0.000091 0.958455 26.290695 103.029999 60.151024 0.037279 0.285105 0.18987
710 35 100 -40503.082031 Leeds -2936.905029 0.751311 0.705867 0.164567 0.038460 4.352413e-05 0.000001 0.961496 26.290695 103.029999 60.151024 0.037279 0.285105 0.18987
708 35 100 -40503.082031 Hastings -1586.345703 0.168664 0.675497 0.419559 0.027363 6.779664e-07 0.000002 0.972634 26.290695 103.029999 60.151024 0.037279 0.285105 0.18987
706 35 100 -40503.082031 Dalton.in.Furness -740.688171 0.082245 0.415728 1.097858 0.040447 1.346045e-05 0.000014 0.959525 26.290695 103.029999 60.151024 0.037279 0.285105 0.18987
704 35 100 -40503.082031 Cardiff -2367.633301 0.361685 0.591363 0.298047 0.040793 4.621410e-06 0.000009 0.959192 26.290695 103.029999 60.151024 0.037279 0.285105 0.18987
[1] PFILTER Result:
Method: pfilter
Number of parameter sets: 36
Number of particles (J): 5000
Number of replicates: 36
Resampling threshold: 0.0
Execution time: 696.1403243541718 seconds
Top 5 Results:
theta_idx shared logLik unit unit logLik R0 sigma gamma sigmaSE cohort amplitude iota rho psi S_0 E_0 I_0 R_0
719 35 -40444.003281 Sheffield -2795.944118 26.290695 103.029999 60.151024 0.037279 0.285105 0.18987 0.735041 0.669331 0.133267 0.041404 5.047259e-05 0.000091 0.958455
359 35 -40444.003281 Hull -2718.827218 26.290695 103.029999 60.151024 0.037279 0.285105 0.18987 0.363004 0.592157 0.195774 0.047708 2.005462e-06 0.000005 0.952285
251 35 -40444.003281 Dalton.in.Furness -744.868121 26.290695 103.029999 60.151024 0.037279 0.285105 0.18987 0.082245 0.415728 1.097858 0.040447 1.346045e-05 0.000014 0.959525
323 35 -40444.003281 Hastings -1593.750659 26.290695 103.029999 60.151024 0.037279 0.285105 0.18987 0.168664 0.675497 0.419559 0.027363 6.779664e-07 0.000002 0.972634
611 35 -40444.003281 Northwich -1209.996711 26.290695 103.029999 60.151024 0.037279 0.285105 0.18987 0.111540 0.805445 0.420897 0.023727 2.156402e-05 0.000022 0.976229
[2] MIF Result:
Method: mif
Number of parameter sets: 36
Number of particles (J): 10000
Number of iterations (M): 100
Resampling threshold: 0
Number of monitors: 0
Block: True
Cooling fraction (a): 0.5
Execution time: 1785.602553844452 seconds
Top 5 Results:
theta_idx iteration shared logLik unit unit logLik iota rho psi S_0 E_0 I_0 R_0 R0 sigma gamma sigmaSE cohort amplitude
80 4 100 -40475.734375 Bedwellty -1129.612915 0.111910 0.316013 1.001531 0.029097 7.476023e-05 9.734456e-06 0.970819 26.290689 103.029999 60.151024 0.037279 0.285105 0.18987
81 4 100 -40475.734375 Birmingham -3247.645264 0.415249 0.571013 0.158316 0.041451 1.110738e-04 1.371684e-04 0.958301 26.290689 103.029999 60.151024 0.037279 0.285105 0.18987
82 4 100 -40475.734375 Bradford -2588.708008 0.670964 0.586316 0.208214 0.043857 9.985018e-07 8.010351e-07 0.956142 26.290689 103.029999 60.151024 0.037279 0.285105 0.18987
83 4 100 -40475.734375 Bristol -2682.767334 0.667311 0.621865 0.196920 0.037392 3.912565e-06 3.138128e-06 0.962601 26.290689 103.029999 60.151024 0.037279 0.285105 0.18987
84 4 100 -40475.734375 Cardiff -2365.043213 0.400047 0.618347 0.276005 0.040346 3.375569e-06 9.107824e-06 0.959642 26.290689 103.029999 60.151024 0.037279 0.285105 0.18987
[3] PFILTER Result:
Method: pfilter
Number of parameter sets: 36
Number of particles (J): 5000
Number of replicates: 36
Resampling threshold: 0.0
Execution time: 689.2634832859039 seconds
Top 5 Results:
theta_idx shared logLik unit unit logLik R0 sigma gamma sigmaSE cohort amplitude iota rho psi S_0 E_0 I_0 R_0
718 34 -40414.726436 Sheffield -2791.596425 26.290689 103.029999 60.151024 0.037279 0.285105 0.18987 0.751961 0.663781 0.136823 0.039477 5.695518e-05 0.000074 0.960392
322 34 -40414.726436 Hastings -1590.536479 26.290689 103.029999 60.151024 0.037279 0.285105 0.18987 0.283874 0.660114 0.438476 0.029844 5.065535e-07 0.000001 0.970154
682 34 -40414.726436 Oswestry -709.644123 26.290689 103.029999 60.151024 0.037279 0.285105 0.18987 0.078010 0.628874 0.503910 0.039101 1.230007e-05 0.000004 0.960883
70 34 -40414.726436 Birmingham -3241.634941 26.290689 103.029999 60.151024 0.037279 0.285105 0.18987 0.900342 0.578632 0.168763 0.041107 1.688347e-04 0.000067 0.958657
538 34 -40414.726436 Manchester -3292.276895 26.290689 103.029999 60.151024 0.037279 0.285105 0.18987 0.622914 0.542787 0.155257 0.050302 1.390253e-06 0.000040 0.949656
[4] PFILTER Result:
Method: pfilter
Number of parameter sets: 1
Number of particles (J): 5000
Number of replicates: 36
Resampling threshold: 0.0
Execution time: 16.27669334411621 seconds
Top 5 Results:
theta_idx shared logLik unit unit logLik R0 sigma gamma sigmaSE cohort amplitude iota rho psi S_0 E_0 I_0 R_0
0 0 -40439.876447 Bedwellty -1128.670636 26.290689 103.029999 60.151024 0.037279 0.285105 0.18987 0.134929 0.320105 0.992889 0.030469 0.000080 7.191181e-06 0.969443
1 0 -40439.876447 Birmingham -3243.380204 26.290689 103.029999 60.151024 0.037279 0.285105 0.18987 0.661300 0.585307 0.163784 0.040237 0.000125 1.516147e-04 0.959487
2 0 -40439.876447 Bradford -2584.482414 26.290689 103.029999 60.151024 0.037279 0.285105 0.18987 0.635799 0.603761 0.198409 0.042163 0.000002 7.715392e-07 0.957834
3 0 -40439.876447 Bristol -2681.532149 26.290689 103.029999 60.151024 0.037279 0.285105 0.18987 0.586822 0.632404 0.186976 0.036336 0.000004 2.411663e-06 0.963658
4 0 -40439.876447 Cardiff -2364.628622 26.290689 103.029999 60.151024 0.037279 0.285105 0.18987 0.400047 0.618347 0.276005 0.040346 0.000003 9.107824e-06 0.959642
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