<plotnine.themes.theme_minimal.theme_minimal at 0x14c50411f470>Panel Measles Report
2026-03-30 13:23:24.817924Python results
Tables
Summary
replicate shared logLik unit unit logLik cohort R0 \
0 0 -40271.050996 Bedwellty -1126.952356 0.447606 22.804222
1 0 -40271.050996 Birmingham -3238.933681 0.447606 33.857647
2 0 -40271.050996 Bradford -2579.646517 0.447606 93.476959
3 0 -40271.050996 Bristol -2682.618409 0.447606 28.629862
4 0 -40271.050996 Cardiff -2364.783512 0.447606 26.504238
sigma gamma iota rho sigmaSE psi amplitude \
0 89.147903 78.997696 0.119138 0.317628 0.056742 0.937729 0.091759
1 37.970783 59.544662 0.152132 0.553679 0.049886 0.179618 0.335775
2 21.207762 26.426008 0.376981 0.586944 0.165612 0.221261 0.604851
3 103.099739 58.254353 0.694781 0.626676 0.040880 0.194857 0.204606
4 615.356140 40.546303 0.623191 0.631775 0.036919 0.273839 0.178428
S_0 E_0 I_0 R_0
0 0.033586 0.000013 0.000039 0.966363
1 0.034108 0.000247 0.000117 0.965528
2 0.016825 0.000032 0.000003 0.983140
3 0.036746 0.000003 0.000002 0.963250
4 0.038100 0.000001 0.000008 0.961891 unit logLik
unit
Bedwellty -1126.952356
Birmingham -3238.933681
Bradford -2579.646517
Bristol -2682.618409
Cardiff -2364.783512
Consett -1361.099150
Dalton.in.Furness -726.629063
Halesworth -316.614277
Hastings -1584.077572
Hull -2707.788588
Leeds -2919.355716
Lees -547.611265
Liverpool -3405.794199
London -3801.151515
Manchester -3234.765334
Mold -296.667398
Northwich -1189.370948
Nottingham -2699.949820
Oswestry -697.595269
Sheffield -2789.646407Top results for each method call
Basics:
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Number of units: 20
Number of parameters: 13
Number of observations (first unit): 730
Number of time steps (first unit): 5110
Results history:
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Results entry 1:
Method: mif
Number of particles (J): 5000
Number of iterations (M): 100
Cooling fraction (a): 0.5
Resampling threshold: 0
Block: True
Execution time: 5639.901193857193 seconds
Top 5 Results:
replicate iteration shared logLik unit unit logLik R0 sigma gamma iota rho sigmaSE psi amplitude S_0 E_0 I_0 R_0 cohort
35 1 100 -40394.074219 Mold -314.041809 8.787634 39.070263 22.963631 0.728282 0.154750 1.338015 2.717306 0.045562 0.273360 0.000029 0.000063 0.726548 0.363702
34 1 100 -40394.074219 Manchester -3246.648438 30.668274 40.918194 20.723011 0.201585 0.546478 0.107992 0.156181 0.576678 0.046844 0.000005 0.000113 0.953038 0.363702
33 1 100 -40394.074219 London -3817.533203 39.252575 101.246918 25.662884 23.898621 0.497012 0.063341 0.118142 0.436273 0.029917 0.000087 0.000002 0.969994 0.363702
32 1 100 -40394.074219 Liverpool -3409.992920 10.439048 138.108231 157.318420 0.680099 0.503794 0.012471 0.132580 0.115603 0.100649 0.000003 0.000630 0.898718 0.363702
23 1 100 -40394.074219 Bristol -2688.773682 49.907917 38.591949 47.213318 0.593737 0.627215 0.083848 0.199825 0.359572 0.022096 0.000004 0.000011 0.977889 0.363702
Results entry 2:
Method: pfilter
Number of particles (J): 5000
Number of replicates: 36
Resampling threshold: 0.0
Execution time: 1771.8226566314697 seconds
Top 5 Results:
replicate shared logLik unit unit logLik cohort R0 sigma gamma iota rho sigmaSE psi amplitude S_0 E_0 I_0 R_0
718 34 -40318.064887 Sheffield -2791.234456 0.251346 35.880260 52.644650 62.807632 0.531964 0.641603 0.041364 0.161203 0.401302 0.029676 0.000035 0.000110 0.970179
610 34 -40318.064887 Northwich -1189.482017 0.251346 92.876884 32.202297 25.333937 0.663461 0.724309 0.438778 0.389417 0.883974 0.005122 0.000002 0.000011 0.994865
394 34 -40318.064887 Leeds -2920.390968 0.251346 41.662991 55.129715 42.243679 1.248571 0.681194 0.062295 0.173498 0.304893 0.027758 0.000046 0.000020 0.972175
106 34 -40318.064887 Bradford -2591.303823 0.251346 49.425121 208.165939 26.122952 0.786235 0.583891 0.059699 0.197378 0.376061 0.028815 0.000001 0.000008 0.971176
574 34 -40318.064887 Mold -296.904483 0.251346 18.646011 134.743729 135.314911 0.016733 0.143454 0.013828 2.803806 0.083229 0.069516 0.000050 0.000016 0.930417
Results entry 3:
Method: pfilter
Number of particles (J): 5000
Number of replicates: 36
Resampling threshold: 0.0
Execution time: 80.98322176933289 seconds
Top 5 Results:
replicate shared logLik unit unit logLik cohort R0 sigma gamma iota rho sigmaSE psi amplitude S_0 E_0 I_0 R_0
0 0 -40271.050996 Bedwellty -1126.952356 0.447606 22.804222 89.147903 78.997696 0.119138 0.317628 0.056742 0.937729 0.091759 0.033586 0.000013 0.000039 0.966363
1 0 -40271.050996 Birmingham -3238.933681 0.447606 33.857647 37.970783 59.544662 0.152132 0.553679 0.049886 0.179618 0.335775 0.034108 0.000247 0.000117 0.965528
2 0 -40271.050996 Bradford -2579.646517 0.447606 93.476959 21.207762 26.426008 0.376981 0.586944 0.165612 0.221261 0.604851 0.016825 0.000032 0.000003 0.983140
3 0 -40271.050996 Bristol -2682.618409 0.447606 28.629862 103.099739 58.254353 0.694781 0.626676 0.040880 0.194857 0.204606 0.036746 0.000003 0.000002 0.963250
4 0 -40271.050996 Cardiff -2364.783512 0.447606 26.504238 615.356140 40.546303 0.623191 0.631775 0.036919 0.273839 0.178428 0.038100 0.000001 0.000008 0.961891
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Transformed scale traces
Natural scale traces
